What to Expect from the Midterms?

The polls will open nationwide for voting in the 2010 Midterm elections in less that twenty-four hours, and while Democrats are bracing for a significant defeat, what is absolutely clear is that the leadership of the new Congress will emerge quite different, with priority congressional issues shaped by the new majority, and emission control language ushered out in favor of domestic manufacturing and job promotion.  But, the drama and intrigue will not be over when the final Congressional ballots are cast.  Top House aides have told Garten Rothkopf that the House is as good as gone for the Democrats, which would lead to, among other things, Nancy Pelosi’s retirement from the House of Representatives.  Also of note are leadership races for key Congressional posts such as Senate Majority Leader, likely between Senator Schumer (D-NY) and Senator Durbin (D-IL); House Minority Leader, likely Steny Hoyer (D-MD); and House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair, a three-way race between Fred Upton (R-MI), Cliff Stearns (R-FL), and John Boehner (R-OH).  President Obama has already seen an exodus of senior officials from his Administration in recent weeks, with talk of more to follow (including recent chatter of Energy Secretary Steven Chu leaving according to insiders), and discussion about pivoting to a new strategy for the second half of his first term.  In today’s GR Energy and Climate brief, Garten Rothkopf previews tomorrow’s 2010 Midterm elections, focusing specifically on the potential for surprising results and drawing out long-term implications for tomorrow’s projected results.  

What is Most Likely To Happen?

While the speculation about what “will” occur always spins out of control near election time, this year being no different, GR conversations with senior officials on both sides in recent days have revealed that the coming GOP wave in the House looks likely to be even larger than previously thought, gaining momentum closer to Election Day rather than dissipating. 
Full article here.