The Yemeni state stands on the verge of collapse - and while international terrorism and religious and tribal conflict have severely weakened the central government, a looming economic crisis brought on by the country’s rapidly diminishing oil and water supplies poses the most serious threat to stability. As overpopulation and climate-related changes rapidly accelerate resource depletion around the world, the Yemeni case serves as an early warning for regions with water shortages. Yemen-expert Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace analyzes the country's fragile resource mix and potential areas in which the central government can mitigate water-related conflict .

The Republic of Yemen is facing a potent combination of challenges: international terrorism, religious and tribal conflict, burgeoning separatism, and economic stagnation.  However, lying at the heart of Yemen’s problems is a looming economic crisis intrinsically related to the issue of resource depletion, particularly water. The country is the poorest in the Arab world, its oil reserves are fast running out, and it has few viable options for a sustainable post-oil economy. A growing population and a historical absence of central government control compound the situation.  The most troublesome aspect of resource depletion is that Yemen’s limited water resources are being consumed much faster than they are being replenished. The situation is worsened by the country’s porous borders and unstable domestic security: heavily armed Islamist terrorists threaten the country in the form of a resurgent al-Qaeda organization, in addition to an armed insurrection in the north and an increasingly active secessionist movement in the south. (See here.)

Over time, the dwindling supply of water will lead to heightened conflict, proving more damaging to Yemen’s stability than al-Qaeda or transnational terrorism ever could, and creating destabilizing spillover effects throughout the entire Middle East region - still the critical hub of energy production and supply for the entire world.  Yemen is also in many ways the first bellwether of increasingly pervasive conflicts over water that will take place around the world in the years to come, not just in the Middle East, and whether or not governments have the policy tools to effectively address the challenges posed by water scarcity will become a critical question.

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