As midterms fast approach expectations of heavy Democratic losses in both the House and Senate will almost certainly increase gridlock over energy and climate legislation should it be punted to 2011. Regardless of whether the GOP regains a majority, the next session will be dominated by competing priorities, concerns over deficit spending and a stronger Republican presence in decision-making. Today’s GR analysis analyzes competitive Congressional races, assessing their potential impact on energy and climate policy.

Please note that due to the summer holiday and the upcoming Congressional recess, there will be a brief break in our mailing schedule and you should expect to receive the next GR Energy and Climate Brief on August 16th.

With the Midterm elections now one-hundred and three days away, the weak economy driving the political conversation, increasing concerns over long-term deficits, and a growing sense that Democrats will suffer significant losses in the upcoming election, debates over climate and energy policy are likely to be upended once again.  Whether or not the Republicans regain control of the House or Senate, or both, increased gridlock is likely, as President Obama’s policy goals run into a new Congress with more elected Republicans running on platforms skeptical of carbon pricing or emissions controls (and eagerly planning to do what they can to cut back on spending).  Today’s announcement by Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) was merely a recognition of the fact that comprehensive plans will have to be set aside in favor of a pared down set of agenda items that could actually pass.  In the first of a series on the implications of the 2010 Midterm elections, today’s GR Energy and Climate brief takes a look at the Midterm elections, focusing on key bellwether states, and assessing the impact of the forthcoming elections on energy and climate policy.

Because the Clock is Running out on this Congress, Major Legislation will be punted to the Next Congress

Today’s key developments saw Majority Leader Reid and Senator Kerry admit that instead of comprehensive legislation, they would opt to push a “Spill Bill”, with some tax provisions to promote efficiency and renewables, but no climate component and no RPS.  The so-called “Spill Bill” being prepared in the House focuses on increased safety regulations and royalty reform, with a bill to lift the liability cap on oil companies in the case of future events.

The bitter irony is that a much more comprehensive deal was probably there for the taking in 2009, but was passed up to go for an economy-wide bill, as well as health care reform. In the end, the only proposal to get Senate attention will deal with BP and oil spill liability, invest in the manufacturing of natural gas vehicles, create a jobs program aimed at increasing home efficiency (formerly called Cash for Caulkers, now called Home Star), and put money back in the Land and Water Conservation Fund.

See full article here.