With natural gas supplies to Europe from Libya cut off and with several EU countries pulling back from plans to expand nuclear power, Russia is poised to take advantage of the situation by promoting greater reliance on its own gas reserves. At the same time, the geopolitical implications of European dependence on Russian gas mean that interest in bypassing Russia through the Southern Energy Strategy is likely to intensify. In this Energy and Climate Brief, Alexandros Petersen of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars examines the implications of the loss of energy from North Africa and the shift away from nuclear for European energy policy, as well as how Russia's role could affect how the EU approaches the issue going forward.

The dual shocks of the conflict in Libya and Japan’s nuclear disaster will have major repercussions for Europe’s energy security, putting Russia in the driver’s seat in terms of supplying a Europe more dependent on gas, and placing  a new focus on the “Southern Energy Strategy.”  Russia has long been the EU’s dominant gas supplier, but with Libyan supplies cut off and nuclear power capacity being taken offline, finding alternatives to diversify away from Russian gas is paramount for European security. Circumnavigation of the Russian land mass (not to mention its political reach) has been put on the table via the concept of the Southern Energy Corridor – which would allow European countries to access alternative Caspian and Middle Eastern resources.  Today’s GR Energy and Climate Brief examines the confluence of events that are driving increased attention to the Southern Energy Corridor and the role that Moscow is playing as the determinant of European gas supplies so vital to the continent’s energy generation capacity.

Two Shocks

The European reaction to Japan’s nuclear crisis was by far the swiftest and most decisive globally.  Germany took the lead, announcing within four days of the Japanese earthquake that it would immediately shut down all nuclear power plants opened before 1980, and temporarily shut down other reactors. The nuclear crisis in Japan has also thrown other nascent European nuclear projects into debate – including those in Poland, Italy, Sweden, and Switzerland – a day after European leaders agreed to “stress tests” on all current nuclear plants in the European Union.  Last month, EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger said a planned Bulgarian nuclear plant on the Danube in a highly seismic zone will be reassessed, and offered bleak comments on Europe's nuclear future.  Europe is the most nuclearized zone on the planet, with 143 reactors, and eight more under construction.  But, each of these eight projects has been reassessed following the nuclear disaster in Japan.  At least in the short-term, this will be a positive development for fossil fuel producing countries, particularly Russia. 

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