The EPA does not possess the necessary technical capacity to fully understand the impact of their regulations on the reliability of the power sector. These new regulations, which begin taking effect next month, could result in regional reliability problems. Today’s GR Energy and Climate Brief looks at the metrics used for reliability, and how timing and regulatory flexibility have the potential to ensure a reliable grid.

A mismatch of technical capacity and regulatory authority is set to impact the reliability of the US grid as the EPA moves forward with new regulations for power plant emissions. Of particular concern are the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS, to be issued December 16th 2011) and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR, effective January 2012 ). Today’s GR Energy and Climate Brief looks at how the choice of metrics, timing and flexibility have the potential to impact power reliability in pockets throughout the country, and how this risk might be averted.

EPA’s Assessment of Reliability is Flawed: The EPA is using resource adequacy, a measure which attempts to reconcile the forecast in demand for power plus a safety margin against planned expansions, to determine whether there is sufficient generation capacity. While this is the most commonly used metric for assessing full system reliability, it fails to incorporate critical factors at the local-level, including transmission system issues and the availability of plants that help boot-strap the power system back online after a black out. These metrics, perhaps because they are more technical, are not particularly well understood outside of the electric utility industry. Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) have expressed concern that the rollout of new EPA regulations could have significant impact on pockets of transmission throughout the country. For example, the retirement of a plant might require the upgrade of transmission lines, an issue that is not reflected in the resource adequacy metric used by the EPA. While FERC and DOE already have the internal technical capacity necessary to run the AC/DC power flow and stochastic models required to fully analyze reliability impacts, the EPA does not. And although there has been more inter-agency communication recently, the EPA regulations will begin taking effect as early as next month.

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