Russia is serious about shifting its energy activities north and east, looking for new opportunities and expanding markets. The game of resource competition creates a variety of political and supply-chains risks, and even the possibility of energy disruptions to Europe if it overextends itself. Today’s GR Energy and Climate Brief examines the increased competition over the Arctic and the significance of Russian – Chinese relations as Russia turns to new areas.

After two decades focused on Central and Western Europe, Russia has increasingly changed its energy orientation, pushing in multiple new directions, most notably towards the Arctic and towards China for new oil and natural gas markets. Despite these objectives, Russia is entering areas where it has less experience, creating a variety of political and supply-chains risks, and even the possibility of energy disruptions to Europe if it overextends itself. Today’s GR Energy and Climate Brief examines Russia’s push North and East in pursuit of its energy ambitions.

The Soviet Legacy: The Soviet oil and natural gas production and transit systems that interlaced across Eurasia, as well as major export routes into the former Eastern Bloc countries of Central and Eastern Europe provided the basis for Russia’s energy strategy in the post-Cold War period. Historically, the country’s energy policy was focused on profitable import or export arrangements with independent republics which emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, other nearby countries such as Finland and Mongolia, and the European Union. With each passing month, however, the country is shifting its orientation, particularly towards the East – China, and towards the North – the Arctic. These shifts will diminish the relative importance of Russia’s relationship with the West, while challenging its statue and negotiating power with the East. This will have the dual impact of making Russia’s relationships with the West less important in relative terms, and putting Russia in an unfamiliar position where the terms of its relationships can be more heavily influenced by its neighbours, in this case China. While Russia and China both have an interest in a more cooperative relationship to expand resource opportunities and markets, setting the terms of the relationship has been an uneasy process on both sides at times.

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